Cross-border power flows rise in South-East Europe as import dependence grows

Cross-border electricity flows across South-East Europe accelerated during calendar week 13, underscoring how quickly regional supply-demand balances are shifting as import dependence rises. The change points to deeper interdependence among national power systems—and to the limits of that interdependence when transmission capacity is constrained.

Net imports climb across multiple markets

Total net imports across the region rose by 27.91%, with several countries increasing reliance on external supply. Hungary recorded a 40.86% increase in net imports, while Croatia’s net imports rose by 33.66%, signals that domestic supply conditions tightened relative to demand.

Italy remained the largest importing market by a wide margin, reinforcing its structural deficit and its central role in regional price formation. Even with higher renewable output, Italy continues to depend heavily on imports to meet overall demand.

Exports weaken as internal demand tightens

On the export side, multiple markets reduced their net export positions. Greece saw exports decline by 25.05%, Romania by 67.27%, and Bulgaria by 34.47%, a pattern consistent with tighter domestic balances and stronger internal consumption.

Türkiye also cut its export position by 18.51%, as rising domestic consumption limited available surplus for external sales.

Serbia moves toward balance on improved generation

Serbia stood out for a significant reduction in net imports of 76.93%, bringing it closer to a balanced position. The improvement was attributed to stronger domestic generation, particularly from renewable and hydro sources.

Interconnections help—but congestion still distorts prices

The broader increase in cross-border flows highlights the value of interconnections for balancing the SEE system as conditions diverge across borders. However, congestion on key transmission corridors continues to restrict how efficiently power can move between markets, contributing to price divergence.

For traders, heavier cross-border activity can create arbitrage opportunities, but it also raises operational complexity tied to transmission constraints and capacity allocation.