SEE power prices tumble in Week 15 as Easter demand softens and solar output rises

South East Europe’s power market entered a clear cooling phase in Week 15 of 2026, with wholesale prices contracting sharply after the previous week’s elevated levels. The shift mattered for investors and traders because it was driven by a combination of calendar-led demand easing during Orthodox Easter and a seasonal jump in solar output—factors that can quickly loosen, and then re-tighten, system conditions across interconnected markets.

Week 15 price correction led by lower consumption and softer fuel costs

In the SEE region, electricity prices contracted sharply in Week 15, with the steepest weekly declines recorded in Bulgaria (-24.6%), Greece (-23.5%), and Romania (-22.8%). Other major markets also posted double-digit drops, including Croatia (-20.3%), Serbia (-19.3%), and Hungary (-18.6%). The overall synchronized correction was mainly attributed to lower consumption during the Orthodox Easter period, which eased tightness across connected systems.

Türkiye stood out as an exception, with prices rising (+28.9%) against the regional trend. The divergence was linked to localized supply-demand imbalances rather than the broader holiday-driven demand shock affecting most SEE markets.

Southern Europe pricing stayed mostly below €100/MWh—then started to turn

Across Southern Europe in Week 15, most SEE markets traded below €100/MWh. Weekly prices ranged from roughly €25/MWh to €120/MWh: Türkiye recorded the lowest weekly average at €24.89/MWh, while Greece fell to €84.69/MWh after a -5.77% weekly decline. On the higher end, Italy remained the most expensive market at €119.89/MWh despite a -11.94% drop, followed by Hungary at €92.19/MWh among the higher-priced hubs.

Daily patterns showed that many markets peaked on 10 April, while troughs were generally observed on 6 April. Across Europe more broadly, prices also followed a bearish direction supported by weaker demand, lower gas and CO₂ prices, and higher solar output.

However, early signs of renewed tightening appeared immediately after Week 15: at the start of the following week, Day-Ahead wholesale prices rose again toward €125–146/MWh in several SEE markets. That rebound suggested that while holiday effects had eased pressure temporarily, underlying fundamentals remained sensitive to weather, renewable output levels, and cross-border flows.

Orthodox Easter timing drove demand shock; generation mix shifted toward solar

On a week-on-week basis across SEE, electricity prices fell by 6.77%, largely reflecting Orthodox Easter timing on 12 April 2026 (a different schedule helped explain Türkiye’s relative stability). The largest declines included Greece (-13.9%), Serbia (-12.9%), Bulgaria (-12.6%), and Croatia (-17.0%), while larger systems such as Italy (-9.5%) and Romania (-9.3%) also saw notable reductions.

Supply-side data pointed to a mixed but offsetting renewable picture: total variable renewable energy (RES) output declined by 6.6%, even as internal components moved sharply in opposite directions. Wind generation dropped by 39.8%, particularly in Greece and Italy (each down more than 60%). Solar generation increased by 41.8%, supported by better irradiance and longer daylight hours.

The solar surge was broad-based—Türkiye (+218%), Greece (+33.8%), Italy (+20.6%), and Hungary (+26.7%) all recorded strong gains—marking a seasonal transition toward solar dominance. Türkiye also posted a net +9.3% increase in total RES output as solar gains outweighed weaker wind conditions.

Hydro variability balanced renewables; thermal generation fell overall

Hydropower output rose by 4.8%, led by increases in Italy (+20.2%) and Greece (+22.7%). Romania was stable (+8.3%); Croatia rebounded sharply from a low base; while Serbia (-59.3%) and Bulgaria (-16.8%) declined due to localized conditions—an uneven hydro contribution that nevertheless helped smooth overall system variability during the week.

Thermal generation fell by 8.3%, with gas-fired output down 12.0% and coal/lignite decreasing 3.9%, consistent with both lower demand and stronger renewable penetration during the holiday period. Reductions were notable in Greece (-24.5%), Romania (-33.2%), and Hungary (-23.1%), while Serbia also cut lignite output (-27%). Italy showed internal fuel switching—lower gas use alongside a sharp rise in coal generation—whereas Türkiye increased thermal generation by 8.3%, mainly through higher gas-fired output.

Cross-border flows shifted as exports rose from some hubs

Cross-border electricity flows decreased by 8.3% week-on-week as regional conditions became more balanced overall following holiday-driven changes in load and dispatch patterns.

Bulgaria increased exports significantly (+80.3%), while Romania moved from importer to exporter supported by stronger hydro production and lower domestic demand levels than before Easter pressure eased further into Week 15 dynamics (as reflected in reduced consumption). Greece reduced exports sharply (-81-9%), while Türkiye also scaled back outward flows due to higher internal dispatch needs.

On imports, Italy remained the dominant structural buyer; Croatia and Hungary continued relying on imports; Serbia’s nearly balanced position indicated normalization of regional flow patterns compared with earlier weeks.

A temporary easing phase—with volatility returning quickly

Taken together, Week 15 reflected a short-lived market relief phase driven by reduced holiday consumption, strong solar growth, softer fuel costs (including gas and CO₂), and shifting cross-border balances across SEE interconnections—including Türkiye’s distinct outcome tied to local imbalances rather than regional calendar effects alone.

Even so, price action after Week 15 suggested that volatility is not gone: wholesale values began to recover early in the next week as tightening fundamentals re-emerged when demand normalized again or when system constraints returned through weather- and flow-sensitive conditions.