Serbia’s industrial turnover grows in February, but export-led momentum cools sequentially

Serbia’s industrial sector kept expanding in February, with growth underpinned largely by external demand. Still, the latest figures also show a small sequential softening versus the recent baseline—an important signal for investors watching how resilient export-led activity remains when domestic conditions are less supportive.

Year-on-year growth holds up, but momentum eases

Total industrial turnover increased by 8.0% year-on-year in February 2026, confirming continued expansion across Serbia’s production base. Yet compared with the average level recorded in 2025, turnover was 0.9% lower, indicating that while growth remains positive, the pace has cooled on a sequential basis.

Mining and manufacturing both contribute

The improvement was broad-based across major sectors. Turnover in mining rose by 7.4%, while manufacturing expanded by 7.9%, suggesting stable performance both in upstream resource extraction and downstream industrial processing.

Exports lead: foreign markets outpace domestic

External markets were the primary driver of the February increase. Turnover on foreign markets climbed 11.1% year-on-year, far outpacing growth on the domestic market at 4.7%. The gap highlights Serbia’s continued reliance on export-oriented industry—particularly sectors integrated into European and global supply chains.

What the pattern suggests for the outlook

The data reflects a familiar structural dynamic: industrial expansion is being led by external demand, while domestic consumption and internal industrial activity are growing more moderately. At the same time, the slight decline relative to the 2025 average implies industrial activity may be moving toward a more balanced phase after a period of stronger expansion.

Seasonal effects, softer domestic demand and higher input costs are likely contributing to this moderation. Overall, Serbia’s industrial turnover remains on an upward trajectory as long as external demand stays supportive—even as domestic conditions appear comparatively subdued.