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Geopolitics pushes fuel risk into Southeast Europe’s power and gas pricing in CW 12–22 March
Fuel-price risk is increasingly shaping how Southeast Europe sets electricity prices, even as renewable output keeps injecting short-term swings. Between CW 12 and 22 March, electricity strengthened across most regional hubs alongside a firming gas market, with the broader move underpinned by mounting geopolitical concerns affecting global LNG flows.
Electricity gains were broadly synchronised across the SEE complex in the week reviewed. Day-ahead prices rose week on week in Greece (+12.03%), Croatia (+9.54%) and Hungary (+8.12%). The same pattern of cost pass-through was also visible in Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria, where increases were more moderate—suggesting regionally aligned tightening rather than isolated moves.
Italy stayed structurally elevated at €149.04/MWh, rising just over 1% on the week. Meanwhile, Southern Europe’s broader price stack cleared above €100/MWh for most markets: Hungary reached €121.93/MWh, while Greece hovered around the €100/MWh level.
The regional picture also featured notable outliers that mattered for traders watching correlations between power and fuel inputs. Serbia remained among the lowest-priced markets at €97.43/MWh, maintaining a relative discount within the regional range.
Power and gas markets electricity prices
A sharp Türkiye break highlights how renewables can override fuel signals
Türkiye broke away from the regional trend: prices fell by -45.71% to €23.57/MWh. The move reflected weaker demand alongside stronger renewable generation—an example of how short-term conditions can decouple local pricing from fuel-driven fundamentals.
Beyond hub-by-hub changes, daily profiles showed an identifiable rhythm: peaks typically arrived on Friday, 20 March, while troughs tended to show up midweek. The pattern was linked to shifting renewable output and demand cycles.
Diverging regions as thermal costs rise but renewables reshape dispatch
The gap between Eastern/Central Europe and Western Europe widened further during the week. Central and Eastern European markets moved higher as rising fuel costs tightened system balances, whereas Spain, Portugal and France saw sharp declines—driven by strong renewable generation that offset thermal price drivers.
Demand dynamics reinforced this split inside SEE itself. Overall demand in the region fell by -4.19% week on week, with a steep -13.37% drop in Türkiye acting as the main drag. By contrast, several Balkan markets recorded growth despite higher power prices: Greece (+7.19%), Bulgaria (+5.20%), Romania (+5.01%) and Serbia (+5.05%). Colder weather conditions were cited as a key contributor to these increases.
The generation mix shifted—wind surged while gas-fired output declined
The supply side changed materially over the same period, helping explain intraday volatility in electricity pricing (and why gas remained influential). Wind output jumped by +60.1% week on week, while solar generation fell by -14.5%. Thermal generation dropped by -13.65%, including gas-fired output down -19.05%, reflecting both higher fuel costs and stronger renewable penetration reducing dispatch needs.
Power and gas markets electricity prices
Croatia? Serbia? Cross-border flows tighten balances through arbitrage
Cross-border activity pointed to tightening regional balances alongside active arbitrage routes within Europe’s interconnected grid structure. Italy remained the dominant import destination with net imports of 1,205 GWh. Hungary increased imports by +36.3%.
The export picture also shifted: Greece expanded exports to net positions of – 261 GWh, while Serbia reduced imports by – 35.3%. Together with domestic demand trends, these movements indicated improving balance conditions for some countries relative to their peers during the week.
LNG-linked geopolitics lifts TTF—and squeezes storage ahead of injection season
The firmness in electricity pricing tracked back to gas fundamentals that strengthened across Europe during CW 12–22 March—especially as geopolitical risks intensified after attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.
The source of pressure included reported damage to LNG capacity in Qatar and disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz, described as a key global transit route for energy shipments. The loss of up to ~20% of global LNG supply flows was cited as introducing a significant risk premium into European gas markets.
TTF rises then eases; storage remains below critical thresholds
Ttf front-month futures rose from €50.9/MWh at the start of the week to a peak of €61.9/MWh, before easing slightly to settle around €59/MWh. That left a weekly average of €55.6/MWh, up +9.2%.
Bullish sentiment was reinforced—but not fully offset—by storage levels remaining low across Europe. Storage was noted at below 30% on average, with some countries falling under 25%. That raised concerns ahead of upcoming injection season timing.
LNG inflows rise where entry points matter most—while consumption runs below norms
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