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Week 12 wind rebound reshapes Southeast Europe’s generation mix as solar slips and hydro diverges
Power markets across Southeast Europe entered Week 12 with a clear shift in how electricity was produced: wind rose fast enough to offset weaker solar, while hydropower stayed broadly stable at the regional level but moved in opposite directions between countries. The result was a changing dispatch pattern—less thermal reliance during high-output periods, but tighter balance around evening peaks.
Renewable generation Renewable generation across Southeast Europe showed a marked shift in Week 12 (16–22 March), with a strong rebound in wind output offsetting weaker solar production, while hydro generation remained broadly stable at system level but diverged sharply across countries.
Variable renewables rise on wind surge
Total variable renewable output increased by 23.2% week on week, driven primarily by a surge in wind generation, which rose by 60.1% across the region. That jump translated into outsized gains in several key markets—Romania climbed by +159.7%, Bulgaria by +269.3%, and Greece by +105.5%.
The same momentum carried through other large systems as well: Italy recorded a rise of +110.9%, Croatia added +63.1%, and Türkiye posted a more moderate increase of +29.5%. Together, these moves pushed the regional power balance toward more renewable availability during high-output periods.
The improved wind performance reduced reliance on thermal generation during those times and contributed to intraday price pressure in several markets—an effect consistent with higher renewable output lowering marginal demand for dispatchable supply when available.
Solar weakness tightens evening conditions
Against that backdrop, solar production declined across most SEE countries, falling by 14.5% week on week. The dataset attributed the drop to weaker seasonal irradiance, with Greece showing the steepest fall at -37.9%, followed by Türkiye (-41.1%) and Romania (-29.9%). Bulgaria was comparatively less affected at -9.6%, while Italy was the only major market to post an increase in solar output during the week.
This reduction mattered operationally: it contributed to tighter system conditions during evening peak hours, increasing reliance on dispatchable sources and amplifying intraday volatility.
Hydro holds steady overall—but splits across borders
Hydropower generation across the region remained broadly unchanged overall, declining marginally by -0.04% week on week. However, country-level results varied significantly.
Greece fell by -30.44%, Bulgaria dropped by -24.23%, and Romania declined by -15.89%, reflecting weaker inflows in those systems. By contrast, Croatia surged by +248.47%, Serbia rose by +107.04%, and Italy also reported an increase of +15.89%
The divergence reinforced cross-border balancing dynamics: Western Balkan systems provided additional flexibility while core EU markets faced tighter hydrological conditions.
Nuclear remains absent from the reported dataset
No nuclear generation data was reported for the SEE region in the dataset, with nuclear influence limited to indirect imports from neighbouring markets.
A firmer cost base underpins pricing despite renewables swings
The Week 12 mix shifted toward wind-led renewable supply—paired with reduced solar contribution—and stable hydro at the aggregate level masks significant national differences underneath. Market participants noted that higher wind penetration exerted downward pressure on prices during certain periods; yet the broader pricing structure remained supported by elevated fuel costs, particularly gas, maintaining a firm baseline across SEE power markets.
